The hottest spot is under great pressure. PVC ware

2022-08-14
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The spot pressure is huge, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts increased by 8000 in three days.

with the first delivery of PVC in the big commercial exchange approaching, the registered warehouse receipts of this variety have also increased unprecedentedly recently, and nearly 8000 new warehouse receipts were added in the first three working days of this week to 13854. Insiders said that the huge increase in registered warehouse receipts before delivery implied that the PVC futures price would still be under pressure

among the warehouse receipts increased in the past three days, the increment of Zhejiang Rongda warehouse was 5459, accounting for the main share. The previous warehouse receipt increase was on August 24, with an increase of about 1140. Liu Dan, an analyst at Xinhu futures, said that at the beginning of the listing of PVC this year, only five delivery warehouses were approved, and now they have been expanded to eight warehouses. The hype about the tight storage capacity in July has now been eased. At present, PVC held about 37000 contracts in September (5 tons per hand), with more than 18000 unilateral positions. The total delivery volume was less than 100000 tons. After deceleration, the lead screw pair was driven to load, so it was not a big problem to ensure the first delivery. Generally speaking, the daily delivery and warehousing capacity of each delivery warehouse is about 1000 tons. Now there is a new increase in registration of such a scale in a single warehouse, indicating that many goods have arrived in advance in the early stage, and warehouse receipts have been generated intensively recently

behind the easing of the shortage of storage capacity, the surge in registration may also be the result of the joint action of PVC traders and manufacturers. Liu Dan pointed out that compared with PVC, san320 and PN (1) 17c need more additions. There are two possible sources for the rapid increase of warehouse receipts: one is that traders make up for the unequal long and short positions in the early stage, and the other is that manufacturers sell goods in the futures market. The former may need to strengthen short selling on the November contract due to arbitrage, which is obviously different from the economic thinking of reckless development in the past 310 years; In addition, the latter is mainly based on the judgment of the decline in the operating rate of PVC downstream industry from import to production in October

among them, traders have made a lot of profits from future cash arbitrage. Due to the sharp reduction of the current price difference of PVC, the increase of warehouse receipts makes the future PVC price even less optimistic. In August, when the price of PVC was at its craziest, the price difference between futures and cash reached more than 1100 yuan, while the current spot price is about 6600 yuan. The November contract closed yesterday at less than 6900 yuan/ton. The reduction of the price difference per ton means a substantial profit from buying spot PVC and selling futures PVC. A chemical product analyst of Nanhua futures said, "the existence of wide price difference between futures and cash in the early stage has prompted a large number of arbitrageurs to buy PVC in the spot market and sell it by futures, which may be one of the factors of the recent surge in warehouse receipts, and the future price is still not optimistic."

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